主办券商声誉机制对新三板挂牌企业会计信息质量影响的实证研究

新三板作为完善我国多层次资本市场的重要举措,在扩宽企业融资渠道、促进实体经济 发展等方面发挥着重要作用,然而信息披露质量不完善仍是制约新三板挂牌企业发展的重要因素。 基于企业会计信息质量视角,文章以 2006-2015 年新三板挂牌企业为研究样本,探讨主办券商声 誉机制是否能够发挥相应的治理作用。研究发现:高声誉主办券商促进了新三板挂牌企业信息披 露质量的提高,而且主要体现在市场化水平较高的省份;进一步研究表明主办券商声誉对信息质 量的治理作用在协议转让与创新层企业中更为明显。研究表明主办券商声誉能够对新三板挂牌企 业发挥相应的持续督导作用,对于如何提升新三板挂牌企业信息披露质量具有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于“互动—耦合—支撑”视角的科技服务业发展机理研究

科技服务业的发展有利于推进产业升级创新和培育新经济增长点。在分析科技服务业内涵、特征及构成要素的基础上,从科技创新链和科技支撑要素综合维度研究了科技服务业细分业态之间的互动机理;从社会分工、价值链升级、产业融合三个维度研究了科技服务业和重点产业间的耦合机理;从政府行为、金融环境、行业技术进步、基础建设、公众意识等方面研究了宏观外部环境对科技服务业发展的支撑机理。可为加快科技服务业发展,促进科技经济深度融合提供理论支撑。     

The Effects of Central Banks’ Rate Change Patterns on Financial Market Variables

This study examines whether different patterns of change to the benchmark interest rates of central banks are associated with their contributions to variances in the forecast errors of three financial market variables: the long-term interest rate, the foreign exchange rate, and the stock market index. On average, the central bank’s interest rate accounts for approximately 20% of the variance in each variable. We find that the total range of changes is more important than the frequency of changes. The panel regression shows that the range and frequency of policy rate changes is positively associated with the volatility of long-term interest rates but no association with the volatility of stock prices and exchange rates. These results suggest that small and frequent adjustments of policy rates are desirable for reducing the volatility of interest rates. The panel VAR represents interest rate channel is a more important than exchange rate and stock price channel.     

资源禀赋、环境规制会促进制造业绿色发展？

基于制造业绿色转型发展的视角,在梳理解析资源禀赋、环境规制与制造业绿色发展内涵及理论关系的基础上,通过构建制造业绿色发展影响要素的动态面板数据计量模型,实证考察 了全国层面及长江三角洲、泛珠江三角洲和环渤海经济带内资源禀赋、环境规制对制造业绿色发 展的作用机理。研究结果表明,在全面层面资源禀赋对制造业绿色发展呈正向作用,环境规制在 短期内对制造业绿色发展呈负向冲击效应,并能对资源禀赋弹性产生抵消作用,但长期来看则能 释放资源比较优势的发挥,并与制造业绿色发展呈“U”型关系;在各经济带检验中,资源禀赋 与环境规制对制造业绿色发展的直接效应呈差异化影响,其中资源禀赋在长江三角洲制造业绿色 发展中表现为负向效应,环境规制在环渤海经济带制造业绿色发展中呈正向效应,长期内环境规 制在泛珠江三角洲和环渤海经济带制造业绿色发展中呈现为“U”型关系。     

New development: Evaluating state revenue portfolio stability—a case of commercial casino taxes

State governments in the USA are searching for new ways to diversify their tax structure’s stability without raising existing taxes. Taxing commercial casinos on non-American Indian reservations has received significant attention to increase state revenue capacities. This article explains the impact of commercial casino tax revenue on state revenue stability.     

On dividends in the phase–type dual risk model

The dual risk model assumes that the surplus of a company decreases at a constant rate over time, and grows by means of upward jumps which occur at random times with random sizes. In the present work, we study the dual risk renewal model when the waiting times are phase-type distributed. Using the roots of the fundamental and the generalized Lundberg’s equations, we get expressions for the ruin probability and the Laplace transform of the time of ruin for an arbitrary single gain distribution. Then, we address the calculation of expected discounted future dividends particularly when the individual common gains follow a phase-type distribution. We further show that the optimal dividend barrier does not depend on the initial reserve. As far as the roots of the Lundberg equations and the time of ruin are concerned, we address the existing formulae in the corresponding Sparre-Andersen insurance risk model for the first hitting time, and we generalize them to cover also the situations where we have multiple roots. We do that working a new approach and technique, approach we also use for working the dividends, unlike others, it can be also applied for every situation.     

供需结构优化、分配结构演化与2035年共同富裕目标展望

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,中国推动经济社会发展,归根结底是要实现全体人民共同富裕。新发展阶段下中国既要优化供需结构以加快构建新发展格局,又要改善分配结构以全面贯彻新发展理念,而供需结构优化与分配结构演化又是紧密关联的。本文建立了一个包含供给结构、需求结构和分配结构的多部门动态一般均衡模型,将分配结构演化分解到供给结构与需求结构转型上,提出了需求结构通过影响供给结构进而影响分配结构的理论机制。本文对近三十年全球四十余个经济体劳动收入份额和技能溢价的演化进行了发展核算,展示了中国分配结构演化的特征事实、供需动因与国际比较。研究发现,中国分配结构演化道路具有一定的特殊性:一方面,劳动收入份额转为上升,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的劳动密集型产业(消费品)的劳动密集程度;另一方面,技能溢价不断扩大,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的产业内部(消费品)的技能密集程度;供需结构转型在其中也发挥了重要作用。本文还基于历史趋势定量预测了未来中国分配结构的演化趋势,为实现2035年共同富裕目标提供了现实依据与政策参考。     

中国绿色产业发展演进特征及数字普惠金融支持分析

为探究中国绿色产业发展现状、空间差异、分布动态演进及数字普惠金融支持效应,论文基于变异系数—层次分析法测度绿色产业发展水平,通过空间Moran’s I指数、Dagum基尼系数及Kernel密度估计分析其空间差异及分布动态,继而利用空间杜宾模型分析数字普惠金融对绿色产业发展的影响。结果表明,绿色产业发展水平正在快速提升,但存在明显空间差异及“俱乐部”发展特征,东、中、西部地区呈梯度递减演进趋势,且整体及东、西部地区具有明显多级分化现象;数字普惠金融能促进整体及东、中部地区绿色产业发展,对西部地区则有抑制作用。对此,应充分重视绿色产业发展的空间差异、分布特征及数字普惠金融异质性支撑作用,强化省份间的区域协调发展效应,实现绿色产业高质量发展。     

Fiscal policy,government debt,and economic growth in the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution

This article presents the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution that sets a budget deficit ratio as an indicator of fiscal policy and examines the short- and long-run effects of an increase in budget deficits and a rise in income tax rates on the economy. The key short-run outcomes are as follows. First, expanded budget deficits have a positive effect on the rate of capacity utilization. Second, the tax rate for wage income does not affect the rate of capacity utilization, whereas the tax rate for capital income has a favorable impact on it. This result implies that raising the tax rate for capital income can be an important policy instrument for stimulating the economy. Third, we find that the economy exhibits a wage-led aggregate demand in the short run. The main long-run results are as follows. First, the effect of expanded budget deficits on the growth rate is ambiguous, since a higher debt burden negatively influences the rate of capacity utilization and hence economic growth, despite the increase in demand caused by government borrowing. A higher budget deficit ratio thus raises the growth rate only if a certain condition is satisfied. Second, the tax rate for capital income has a positive impact on the growth rate. Third, the economy shows a wage-led growth in the long run.